Viscose staple fiber, commonly known as "artificial cotton", is a kind of regenerated fiber of natural cellulose.
Viscose staple fiber is mainly used in rayon yarn, blended yarn and non-woven field. Source: Baichuan Yingfu
Before the current round of price increase, the viscose fiber industry has experienced a long period of downturn. With the increasing competition, enterprises with small capacity and weak financial strength gradually withdraw, and a number of weak enterprises have been merged and integrated by large enterprises with stronger strength.
According to statistics, in 2020, the total production capacity of China's viscose staple fiber industry will be about 5.21 million tons / year, the output will be 3.812 million tons, and the annual capacity utilization rate will drop by 10.5% to 73.2%.
The transition will take place in the second half of 2020. On the one hand, the export demand of viscose staple fiber is good after August, and the domestic viscose staple fiber export is 364000 tons in 2020, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0%; on the other hand, the downstream textile export of viscose staple fiber is good. From January to December 2020, China's cumulative export of textile and clothing is 291.22 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6%. Among them, in December last year, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $26.2 billion, a month on month increase of 6.6%.
Is there room for viscose staple fiber to go up in the future? A number of institutions gave optimistic forecasts.
From the cost side, the current cotton price is about 16200 yuan / ton, which is still near the cost line. There is still room for price increase. The cotton viscose price gap is expected to continue to narrow. The downstream cotton yarn price rises sharply, and the price transmission is smooth.
From the demand side, about 60% of the downstream viscose staple fiber is rayon yarn. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for Spunlaced non-woven fabrics has increased significantly, driving the recovery of viscose staple fiber demand.
From the supply side, there is almost no expectation of new production capacity in the whole industry in 2021. Excluding the long-term shutdown capacity, it is estimated that the production capacity of viscose staple fiber will be reduced to 5.085 million tons in 2021.
Guosen Securities believes that at present, the domestic viscose staple fiber inventory is only about 5 days. After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional peak season of chemical fiber, and the industrial chain is added to supplement the inventory demand. In addition, there is no new production capacity for viscose staple fiber in the next year, and the price of viscose staple fiber is expected to continue to rise.