"This is the fastest commodity rise since the 21st century," said Tao Chuan, chief Macro Analyst at Dong Wu securities on March 14, in a public paper describing the rise in prices this round. According to statistics, the S & P GSCI commodity index has risen 87% since April 2020, and the monthly average month on month increase is 5.4%. Since this century, the period after the current round of growth rate is the rise in February 2009 to June 2011, when the bulk increase rate was + 3.1% month on month. As for how long the price rise tide may last, Lao Zhu told times finance and economics that, based on his experience, it is expected that the price rise of raw materials will last 3-6 months. "Inflation expectations will be digested slowly, some of the sudden surge in demand from the epidemic will disappear and prices will be flat," he explained
Li Cong, who has been tracking the price trend of international chemical products for a long time, has different judgments. Li Cong is a company with collagen, polyurethane, coke refining agent, etc. and it is used in diapers, fresh-keeping film, etc. He estimates that chemical products in the next 10 years will not be able to return to the 2020 low. But the trend of chemical products in the near future depends on the game of upstream and downstream.
Li Cong analysis, although raw materials prices soar, but in fact, after the Spring Festival to the present, factories will not generally purchase. "Factories usually reserve raw materials for months before Spring Festival holidays. At present, raw materials are up, and there is no market for price. If this state continues, upstream companies will have a backlog of inventory, to a certain extent, they will reduce prices and demand sales. " Li Cong concluded that once the price is lowered, the decline will be large. "Now, it is the downstream can not support the receipt, or upstream can not support the exchange." Li also mentioned a more embarrassing situation, some downstream enterprises signed orders with domestic and foreign businesses before the Spring Festival. If the enterprise is shipped at the price previously set, even if the raw materials rise, there is no way to change. If we produce high price raw materials, enterprises will lose money.
In the second half of last year, the second outbreak of overseas epidemic affected the "house economy" under suspension and production, the demand for furniture and household goods increased, and Chinese manufacturing was snapped up overseas, CCTV reported. Since the third quarter of last year, China's foreign trade export has accelerated to recover, and the export orders of furniture, textile and other industries have exceeded the market expectations. It is not ruled out that many downstream enterprises are in the awkward situation mentioned by Li Cong.
Li Cong is in a proactive business, and is now controlling the volume of shipments, and it is estimated that the raw materials stored can be held up to the beginning of April. Zhao Ming, general manager of a plastic industry company in Anhui, thinks that most plastic chemical enterprises in Anhui are not optimistic. He told times finance and economics that "at least half of the enterprises have to do loss business."